The Digital Divide
How lack of internet access hinders Ethiopia’s potential
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In 2019 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed famously said that “internet services are not the water or air that we breathe”.
But internet services are a resource vital to the survival of modern societies.
At CARD we believe that reliable and affordable internet is key to unlocking Ethiopia’s potential to become a thriving democratic and economic powerhouse.
With only 1 in every 4 Ethiopians online, we’ve got a long way to go.
Ethiopian government acknowledges the financial benefit in getting more people online:
“Connectivity is a foundational element of digital transformation and can drive socioeconomic development”
And there is data to back up these claims.
A 10% increase in mobile broadband penetration in Africa is linked to a 2.5% increase in GDP per capita. Increasing the mobile broadband penetration rate is not simply a question of infrastructure availability. The same research notes that a 10% drop in the price of mobile broadband for consumers boosts adoption by more than 3.1%.
Let's break this down.
Currently, 2GB internet costs $2.71 and there are 23,800,000 users
if the price drops by 10% it would cost $2.44 and increase the number of users by 737,800.
But to reach the 2.5% GDP target we need another 1,642,200 users. Which would mean dropping the price by 32%, to $1.84.
So when we have 26,180,000 users we can expect a 2.5% growth in GDP.
If all of those subscribers paid the new price of $1.84, Ethio telecom would lose $9.2 million.
BUT with 10% more people online, the GDP would grow by 2.5%, pumping $2.7 billion into the economy!
So the government could well and truly afford to subsidise the deficit. Increasing the mobile broadband penetration rate is not simply a question of infrastructure availability.
Back to reality…
Despite steady improvement, Ethiopia is still lagging behind the Sub Saharan average.
With only 1 in 4 of us online, the digital divide is widening and it is stifling our economic growth.
Who are the 3 in 4 disconnected Ethiopians, and why do they remain offline?
Let's start with a 5-question quiz to test your knowledge of Ethiopia's digital gap.
If you took our quiz from inside Ethiopia, the data shows you are more likely to be a man, under 35 years old, with secondary education and living in an urban area. Chances are, you are also reading this story on your phone.
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Keep reading to find out more about the internet in Ethiopia, and our vision for a more equitable internet.
Despite its potential to transform Ethiopia's economy, internet access across the country remains unequal and astonishingly expensive. Large portions of our population are completely excluded from accessing the internet.
Those who are disconnected are far more likely to be from communities who are already marginalised: people living in rural areas, older people, poorer people, and above all, women.
Rural communities in Ethiopia lag far behind urban centres when it comes to internet usage and, no matter where you live, there is a huge gender gap which has worsened over time.
In 2018, 9% of men had access to the internet while only 5% of women did, a difference of 4 percentage points. But by 2021, that gap had increased to 9 percentage points, with 20% of men having access compared to only 11% of women (Inclusive Internet Index, 2018-2021).
If you took the quiz, you’ll recall that only 1% of women and 4% of men living in rural areas said they had used the internet in 2015 (USAID, 2016).
Another quiz recap! Younger Ethiopians were also far more likely to have used the internet than people over 30. In fact 3 in 4 of those who used the internet in 2015 were younger than 30, and of those, 6 in 10 were men (USAID, 2016).
Educational attainment is also a significant determining factor in whether somebody is likely to have access to the internet. 65% of men and 41% of women with a post-secondary school education reported having used the internet at least once in 2015 (USAID, 2016).
In stark contrast, among men and women with no formal education, only 1 in 2000 reported using the internet in 2015.
Most Ethiopians who access the internet do so from their mobile devices.
According to data from the International Telecommunications Union, there was 1 active mobile broadband subscription for every 5 Ethiopians and 1 fixed broadband subscription for every 500 Ethiopians in 2020.
This disparity is explained by several infrastructure challenges. Fixed broadband connections need electricity, which is available in less than half of Ethiopia's households (48.2%) according to the World Bank. Those living in rural households are far more likely to be off the grid (only 36.3% have electricity) than those living in urban households (92.8% have electricity).
A lack of financial investment has limited Ethio Telecom’s ability to build out the infrastructure needed for fixed broadband connections, and the current network equipment is outdated and unable to provide reliable widespread internet coverage.
Despite its wide reach, high-speed mobile internet coverage continues to be poor and has limited capacity.
6 in 10 Ethiopians had a mobile phone in 2016 (ITU, 2016). And according to Ethio telecom’s most recent business update report, only 1 in 5 Ethiopians has a mobile and data subscription for their phone (Ethio telecom FY 2020/2021).
As you can see 97% of Ethiopia’s population live within range of a 2G mobile cellular network, but the network only has enough capacity to support 44% of our population.
The 2G network in Ethiopia is slow. With data transfer speeds as low as 67kbps, modern websites are difficult to load and it is hard to get an email client to work. Forget about watching YouTube at this speed!
85.5% of us in Ethiopia live within range of a 3G mobile network, which offers connections of up to 2 Mbps.
At 2 Mbps you can browse the internet and use social media and messaging apps, you can also watch videos and listen to music and make video calls.
The 4G network, while covering 7% of the population, is only available in pockets of Addis Ababa, and has a subscriber capacity of 400,000. In real terms, there’s only enough 4G capacity for 1 in every 10 people living in Addis Ababa.
But to develop a thriving digital economy Ethiopia really needs 4G technology rolled out to a much larger number of people in many more regions.
As if the infrastructural and societal challenges such as gender and economic disparity weren’t enough, there are also significant political challenges.
Despite recognising the pivotal role that internet access has in order to attain economic development, inclusion and equality, our government — in contrast with its own goals — continues to shut down the internet, often in order to muzzle freedom of expression.
Shutting down the internet not only damages citizens’ trust in the government and negates the government’s commitment to upholding human rights, it also damages our country's reputation on the international stage and jeopardises the progress already made on the government's Digital Ethiopia 2025 strategy.
The government invokes reasons such as national security concerns, public order, insecurity and the integrity of school exams to shut down the internet, but no matter the reason, the result of any shutdown has extreme economic, reputational and human costs.
During the last five years, there have been at least 17 documented partial and total shutdowns across Ethiopia, disconnecting entire communities from the internet and from each other, and harming businesses and people.
“The worst crisis is in Tigray where the internet and most other means of communication have been completely shut down since November 2020. Other areas involved in the northern Ethiopian war are also experiencing frequent internet shutdowns, many of which are difficult to document. In west Oromia, partial shutdowns happen frequently."
"The Ethiopian government has shutdown all communication in Wallaga, Oromia and it has been over a month. Families cannot get a hold of anyone in their and people are being hurt in the dark. We don’t know how they are fairing and we have no way to communicate with them. The stress in the community is huge and we don’t know if our families are even alive."
"The government of Ethiopia shutdown Internet in west Oromia and parts of Southern Oromia for more than two month ( Since January 8, 2020). This includes disruptions of mobile internet, fixed-line internet, telephone services, or specific apps like WhatsApp, Twitter, or Facebook. People living in those parts of the country are not getting any information about the spread of Coronavirus. I am so worried the virus would affect them severely due to lack of information and would like the government end the internet shutdown as soon as possible."
According to the government’s Digital Ethiopia 2025 strategy, the government views digital technology as key to achieving an “inclusive, knowledge-based and prosperous society.”
Ethiopia's main strategic bets for economic development rely on markets that mainly need to be reached online: tourism, manufacturing, and services.
"The internet is the lifeline of modern business. Ethiopian startups need to work even harder to be competitives as the ecosystem hasn't been well developed yet, and shutting down the internet will affect them greatly and limit them with a risk of completely lost business deals. In the case of tech startups, the internet is their "suq", the marketplace, without it they don't function. When businesses are affected the country will lose significantly."
If the Ethiopian government plans to use the internet to spur nationwide growth it will also need to start respecting how its citizens use the internet to live, learn, work and communicate freely.
This may seem threatening to those in power, but our government said it best themselves in their Digital Ethiopia plan:
"Leveraging these digital opportunities demands a new mindset and leadership style from the Government. Enabling innovation means embracing the unknown."
Here at CARD we couldn’t agree more.
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If you are a person, organisation or company and you want the same, please share this story using #KeepItOn. Speak up and ask for your human rights to be respected!
This story is a collaborative production between CARD and Data4Change, as part of Data4Change's Data Stories Programme, which was funded by Small Media and Omidyar Network.
Credits: Senior Data Researcher, Evelina Judeikyte; Data Associate, Alice Feng; Graphic Designer, Surasti Puri; Journalist, Daniela Q. Lépiz.